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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/17 10:48

   Corn and Soybeans Deep in the Red Midday Thursday

   Corn is 20 to 22 cents lower up front and 17 to 19 cents lower on new crop; 
soybeans are 38 to 40 cents lower with flat spreads, and wheat is 12 cents 
lower to 1 cent higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 220 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.60. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are weaker with 
crude down $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading.


   Corn trade is 20 to 22 cents lower up front and 17 to 19 cents lower on new 
crop with spreads softening at midday. Early strength with spillover from 
soybeans, some rains and lackluster exports, along with the sharply stronger 
dollar, is keeping pressure on at midday. Ethanol margins are seeing support 
from corn values, but concerns about blending rates will limit upside. Brazil 
weather looks mostly unchanged short term as the crop advances toward harvest 
with some late rains. Meanwhile, U.S. weather will be watched for consistency 
in the second week forecast while heat will be the rule of many the next few 
days with some better than expected Iowa rains overnight. Corn basis should 
remain flat to weaker near term with more attention going to new crop. Weekly 
export sales were soft at 18,000 metric tons of old crop and 276,100 metric 
tons of new. On the July contract, trade is back below the 20-day at $6.67 with 
the late strength Wednesday holding, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.28.


   Soybeans are 38 to 40 cents lower at midday with big soy oil liquidation 
leading trade down. There is little fresh news otherwise and little other 
bullish news to boost trade as we get more oversold. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 
lower and oil was 3.80 cents to 4.20 cents lower. The weather pattern should 
allow for short-term stress to give way to rains in the center of the belt. 
South America should continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S. 
basis soft with processors and exporters softening bids recently. Weekly export 
sales remain soft at 65,300 metric tons old and 6,500 new; 177,300 of old meal 
and 7,800 of new, with 2,200 of oil. On the July soybean chart, support is 
$14.00, with the lower Bollinger Band resistance at $14.36, which are solidly 


   Wheat trade is 12 cents lower to 1 cent higher with spring wheat leading on 
weather concerns with spillover from row crops, the stronger dollar and harvest 
pressure limiting winter wheats. The dollar is attempting to consolidate at 
over 91 points on the index post Fed, which will work to limit upside if 
sustained with more consistent action later in the week. Warmer weather this 
week should help to bring winter wheat along after the slow down last week with 
early harvest getting underway on the far Southern Plains. Other Northern 
Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with little fresh news 
on the front with Russia mostly OK for now. KC continues at a 56-cent discount 
to Chicago widening a bit, with Minneapolis at a 107-cent premium. Weekly 
export sales were soft at 287,100 metric tons range. KC July on the chart has 
resistance the 20-day at $6.25 with support at the lower Bollinger Band at 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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